Overview of Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Quantification Challenge Problem and Results

Abstract

A Challenge Problem in Uncertainty Quantification for Fluid Dynamics was proposed in 2022 with the intent of developing a community of interested parties to apply multiple approaches to a common problem. This not only compares costs and strengths of different techniques, but also facilitates engagement by individuals from both the uncertainty quantification community and the fluid dynamic community. During SciTech 2024, two special sessions were held to present results of this problem. This paper provides an overview of the final problem as well as additional considerations behind it, a reference Monte Carlo solution, and an initial overview of the participant results. Overall, there is good agreement among the different methods that are applied at a significant cost reduction from traditional Monte Carlo and there are multiple opportunities to provide a deeper analysis than the present effort.

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