Bayesian Decision Dynamics in Social Systems: The Influence of External Principals on Herd Behavior

Abstract

In this study, we investigated the dynamics of decision-making in social systems, with a focus on the concept of 'herd behavior,' where individuals tend to follow the choices made by their predecessors without fully understanding the rationale behind those choices. By introducing principals or external guides into the decision-making process, we add a layer of complexity and examine how the reliability of these guides can impact decisions. We find that even occasional reliance on an unreliable principle can significantly alter decision outcomes. Moreover, an increase in trust in a principal whose advice is random can lead to more decision errors. Our findings underscore the critical need for exercising caution when trusting external guides in decision-making contexts. Additionally, our research suggests that fostering a better understanding of the factors influencing decision-making in social systems can lead to more informed and effective strategies in various domains, ultimately contributing to improved decision-making processes and outcomes.

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