War and mobility: Using Yandex web searches to characterize intentions to leave Russia after its invasion of Ukraine

Abstract

BACKGROUNDFollowing the Russian invasion of Ukraine, many citizens left Russia due to increasing government repression, the fear of mobilization, or to escape the economic downturn.As yet, reliable statistical data on those who left are not available.Hence, much remains unknown about the characteristics and scope of this population.In the digital age, people prepare their journeys by searching online and these digital traces provide clues about their intentions and the scale of mobility events. OBJECTIVEHere we aim to leverage this resource of search engine data to study geographic, temporal, and demographic trends in the international mobility intentions of Russian residents. METHODSOur analysis combines search queries provided by the search engine Yandex with citylevel data on sociodemographic and geographic characteristics.We examine two mobility events, the first after the start of the invasion and the second after mobilization started.We explore the relationships between cities' sociodemographic characteristics and the number of mobility-related searches during those events using a set of generalized linear models.

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