Will the European Union escape its autocracy trap?

Abstract

This article explores three intertwined questions concerning the European Union’s reaction to the rise of increasingly autocratic member governments. First, why did the EU fail to act robustly to address the emergence of such governments for a decade? Second, why has the EU become more assertive in challenging them since late 2021? Third, and more prospectively, should the EU’s more assertive stance and recent electoral developments in Poland give us reason to believe that the EU may be on the cusp of escaping its autocracy trap? The article identifies the key features of the institutional structure and political culture of the EU that long discouraged it from responding robustly to the autocracy crisis, explains why the erosion of these features spurred the EU to take more vigorous actions over the last two years, and concludes with an analysis of why – despite this recent shift in approach – we should not expect the EU to escape its autocracy trap anytime soon.

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