World Population Ageing 2023

Abstract

Population ageing is a global phenomenon, an inevitable consequence of the demographic transition that is affecting all countries of the world. The report will examine changing population age structures in developing countries with relatively high levels of fertility (at least 4 births per women), with a focus on LDCs in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. It will also briefly discuss the opportunities and challenges that these countries face in benefitting from the “demographic dividend” – the potential boost in the rate of economic growth per capita during the period when the working-age population grows faster than the total population. The analysis will examine the implications of selected projection scenarios from the World Population Prospects 2022 (WPP22) for trends in the age structure, population growth and demographic dividends in LDCs. Most Asian LDCs are approaching the end of the demographic transition from high to low levels of mortality and fertility, whereas most African LDCs are in the early stages of this transition, which is expected to unfold gradually over the course of the present century. The report will feature case studies of how this gradual shift towards older population age structures may affect the realization of the demographic dividend in different contexts. These case studies (two countries from Asia and two from sub-Saharan Africa) will include a review of the respective demographic, economic, social, cultural and historical contexts to assess the challenges and opportunities in anticipating and preparing for the future ageing of the population in each country. Lessons learnt and best practices derived from experience of countries at different stages of the demographic transition will provide the basis for policy recommendations for Governments of LDCs to support sustainable development, social inclusion and adaptation to ageing societies, taking advantage of the window of opportunity created by the temporary increase in the relative size of the working-age population.

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