Applying AHP and SCOR to assess road transport risk in the petroleum supply chain

Abstract

The study aimed to identify and categorise the Road Transportation Risk Factors (RTRF) that threaten the flow of petroleum products through Petroleum Supply Chain (PSC). A hybrid methodology integrating risk assessment techniques and probabilistic modelling was developed to prioritise critical risk factors using a pairwise comparison process. The proposed methodology was applied to the Algerian state-owned oil company, NAFTAL. It was achieved to create a weighted model of the constraints of risk factors on the performance of PSC at the local level. The Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Weighted Performance Measurement (WPM) were combined within the proposed Supply Chain Operations Reference Model (SCOR) and RTRF. The study identified critical RTRF by probability: traffic, roads, human, weather, material-related risks, and vehicles. It emphasised the importance of integrating environmental metrics into benchmark performance standards, such as the SCOR model and recommends that decision makers at NAFTAL considers traffic congestion, poor road conditions, and human error as key risk factors in formulating risk mitigation policies for the local PSC. Furthermore, this paper addresses the research gap in linking risks to performance to enhance the efficiency and safety of hazardous petroleum transportation.

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