A Proposed Churn Prediction Model

Mona Nasr · Essam Mohamed Shaaban · Yehia Helmy · Ayman Elsayed Khedr

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Customer churn and segmentation Online Learning and Analytics Data Mining and Machine Learning Applications

Abstract

Churn prediction aims to detect customers intended to leave a service provider. Retaining one customer costs an organization from 5 to 10 times than gaining a new one. Predictive models can provide correct identification of possible churners in the near future in order to provide a retention solution. This paper presents a new prediction model based on Data Mining (DM) techniques. The proposed model is composed of six steps which are; identify problem domain, data selection, investigate data set, classification, clustering and knowledge usage. A data set with 23 attributes and 5000 instances is used. 4000 instances used for training the model and 1000 instances used as a testing set. The predicted churners are clustered into 3 categories in case of using in a retention strategy. The data mining techniques used in this paper are Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine and Neural Network throughout an open source software name WEKA.

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