Managing Risk and Uncertainty in the Context of Child Protection Decision Making

Abstract

Abstract Uncertainty is a concept related to, but distinct from, risk. Risk has been defined as the portion of the continuum from complete certainty to total ignorance that can be estimated using tools of probability. Uncertainty, on the other hand lies in the portion of the continuum of knowability that is incalculable and uncontrollable. It is well established that estimating risk probabilistically in the child protection context is unreliable and prone to error under conditions of high uncertainty—particularly when making decisions on the long-term needs of a child. This is true whether risk is estimated using professional judgement, statistical algorithms or a combination of both. In other disciplines, tools have been developed that transition decision making away from the probabilistic reasoning associated with judgments of risk (the ‘Predict and Act’ paradigm) to procedures that do not rely on the probabilistic estimation of risk (the ‘Monitor and Adapt’ paradigm). A pragmatic approach to adapting existing assessment procedures developed within the Predict and Act paradigm to align more closely with the Monitor and Adapt approach is presented. It is suggested that a key component of such an adaptation would be integrating case formulation into routine child protection practice.

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