RAW MATERIAL EXPORTS REDUCTION IN TRANSFORMING THE STRUCTURE OF RUSSIA’S GDP

Abstract

The article presents a thesis that a phased reduction of the share of raw materials in the total volume of Russian exports and re-direction of a much greater part of it to domestic processing and subsequent export of final high-tech products are required. The need for such structural transformation is explained not only by the intensification of anti-Russian sanctions against fuel and energy complex, including the introduction of an embargo and price ceiling for its products, but also by the urgent need for a radical change in the very type of growth of the domestic economy - from raw materials export to the one based on innovations. Such shift is associated with devising and implementing a nationwide structural government policy, designed to resist further deindustrialization of the national economy. Based on the analysis of the key imbalances of the Russian economy developed during its market transformation, with a special emphasis on the ratio of consumption, investment, government purchases and trade balance, the author offers his own vision of an algorithm for a reasonable increase in the investment quota not through reducing personal consumption, but by temporarily reducing the contribution of net exports. The analysis concludes with the description of a fundamental scheme of urgently required changes in the functional structure of Russia’s GDP with the vision of ways to prevent an excessive imbalance between the revenue and expenditure parts of the Russian state budget.

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