Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Financial Liquidity of Companies: A Moderation Analysis

Abstract

The objective of this study was to examine the potential moderating effects of the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the financial liquidity of enterprises. Given the significance of liquidity for companies and the profound impact of the macroeconomic environment, a research gap was identified in relation to the limited number of studies investigating the influence of macroeconomic factors on corporate liquidity. Additionally, the limited scope of companies surveyed in this area, in terms of sector, size, capital market presence, and the limited range of macroeconomic variables examined were notable. Most importantly, the absence of studies examining moderators of the relationship between macroeconomic factors and liquidity was a significant concern. To this end, two main research questions were formulated. First, what factors moderate the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the financial liquidity of companies? Second, what is the nature of the moderating effects on the relationship between macroeconomic variables and corporate financial liquidity? This research employed panel data analysis on an unbalanced panel comprising 5327 Polish enterprises spanning from 2003 to 2021. The primary analytical technique utilised was linear regression (pooled OLS) with robust standard errors clustered at the firm level. The main results of this study indicate that: (1) debt level, profitability, and the fixed assets to total assets ratio are significant moderators of some of the relationships between macroeconomic variables and corporate liquidity; (2) debt level moderates the relationship between the ratio of internal expenditures on research and development to GDP and financial liquidity, as well as the relationship between inflation rate and liquidity; the relationship is statistically significant and positive only for those enterprises with above-median debt levels; (3) profitability moderates the relationship between the employment coefficient and financial liquidity, as well as the relationship between the inflation rate and liquidity; in the high-profitability group, those relationships are positive, whereas in the low-profitability group, they are negative; (4) the ratio of fixed assets to total assets moderates the relationship between the money supply and corporate financial liquidity; for enterprises with low asset flexibility, there is a negative relationship between the money supply and financial liquidity; conversely, for enterprises with high asset flexibility, there is a positive relationship between the money supply and financial liquidity; (5) the rationale behind these findings can be derived from capital structure theory and financial analysis theory. The results of this study represent a step towards a more comprehensive understanding of the relationship between the macro environment and corporate liquidity, as well as the factors that moderate this relationship from both a microeconomic and a macroeconomic perspective. The findings of this study may also inform policy decisions governing the corporate sector due to a more nuanced understanding of the relationships between macroeconomic factors and corporate liquidity.

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