How Cognitive Bias Prevents Serendipity in New Product Development (and What to Do About It)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to identify practical strategies that New Product Development (NPD) managers can undertake to increase the likelihood of serendipity within the NPD process, by focusing on overcoming the barriers presented by cognitive bias. We adopt an alternative methodological approach based upon analogical reasoning to develop a series of propositions that explain the relationship between cognitive biases and serendipity. We present a process model of how serendipity unfolds within NPD. We provide a detailed analysis of cognitive bias within NPD, and identify those categories of biases which are most likely to hinder the occurrence and realisation of serendipity in NPD. Finally, we propose a strategy of debiasing NPD activities to enable serendipity and thereby improve new product performance. The paper concludes with a research agenda and discusses implications for firms.

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