Risk Analysis of Pirate Attacks on Southeast Asian Ships Based on Bayesian Networks

Qiong Chen · Jinsheng Zhang · Jiaqi Gao · Yui‐yip Lau · Mark Ching‐Pong Poo · Pengfei Zhang

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Maritime Security and History Information and Cyber Security Maritime Navigation and Safety

Abstract

As a bridge for international trade, maritime transportation security is crucial to the global economy. Southeast Asian waters have become a high-incidence area of global piracy attacks due to geographic location and complex security situations, posing a great threat to the development of the Maritime Silk Road. In this study, the factors affecting the risk of pirate attacks are analyzed in depth by using the Global Ship Piracy Attacks Report from the IMO Global Integrated Shipping Information System (GISIS) database (i.e., 2013–2022) in conjunction with a Bayesian Network (BN) model, and the Expectation Maximization algorithm is used to train the model parameters. The results show that piracy behaviors and the ship’s risk are the key factors affecting the risk of pirate attacks, and suggestions are made to reduce the risk of pirate attacks. This study develops a theoretical basis for preventing and controlling the risk of pirate attacks on ships, which helps maintain the safety of ship operations.

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2016A novel flexible model for piracy and robbery assessment of merchant ship operations 2020The analysis of maritime piracy occurred in Southeast Asia by using Bayesian network 2014A Bayesian network to manage risks of maritime piracy against offshore oil fields 2013Agent-based model of maritime traffic in piracy-affected waters 2023Towards safe navigation environment: The imminent role of spatio-temporal pattern mining in maritime piracy incidents analysis 2013A study of maritime security and piracy 2011On the success rates of maritime piracy attacks 2023Leverage Bayesian Network and Fault Tree Method on Risk Assessment of LNG Maritime Transport Shipping Routes: Application to the China–Australia Route

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