Does the U.S. export inflation? Evidence from the dynamic inflation spillover between the U.S. and EAGLEs

Abstract

Given the crucial role of inflation as a key economic barometer, our paper investigates the dynamic inflation spillover between the U.S. and the nine emerging and growth-leading economies (EAGLEs) between 1991M1 and 2020M2. Employing the recently developed time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VAR)-based connectedness approach, we find evidence of a moderate inflation spillover across the sample countries at normal condition. We further point out that inflation spillover effects with the U.S. are more pronounced for the emerging markets with higher openness, the net oil-importing emerging markets, and the emerging markets following free-float exchange rate regimes. More importantly, the inflation spillover index among the system rises dramatically to over 70% under extremely inflationary conditions, implying that the transmission of spiral inflation is very high. Additionally, the time-varying analysis shows that the role of the U.S. in the inflation shock transmission with emerging countries varies between being a net inflation-exporter and inflation-importer over times. Finally, an investigation of the drivers of the inflation spillovers reveals that the U.S. dollar, emerging markets' economic policy uncertainty, and bilateral trade are key determinants of the inflation shock transmission among the system. Our findings justify central banks’ actions in decreasing U.S. dollar reserves to safeguard their domestic currencies.

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