Task reliability index for operator performance and failure probability assessment in control room simulators

Abstract

Main control room simulators are an important information source for improving the empirical basis of human reliability analysis (HRA). Both quantitative and qualitative observations provide valuable insight on the operators’ ability to successfully perform their tasks. However, relevant portions of this evidence are not used in typical approaches for estimation of human error probabilities (HEP), which are based on failure counts. With small sample sizes and the operator performance levels representative for nuclear power plants, very little information enters the probability estimates. This paper presents a novel approach to formalize the collection and use of reliability-relevant evidence from simulators. The methodology treats task reliability with the plant-centred orientation characteristic of the systems or Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) perspective as well as a human-centred view of task performance based in human factors engineering. These are combined to form a Task reliability index (TRI) able to distinguish finer performance variations and consider indications of potential failures. Bayesian updating of HEP distributions is suggested by translating the TRI data into pseudo-failures and trials, preserving the convenient coupling of Beta-Binomial distributions in the Bayesian analysis. The approach is demonstrated using data from the International HRA Empirical Study and is shown to produce results that are comparable to those obtained in the empirical study, which were based on comprehensive expert analyses.

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