External Testing of a Deep Learning Model to Estimate Biologic Age Using Chest Radiographs

Abstract

Purpose To assess the prognostic value of a deep learning–based chest radiographic age (hereafter, CXR-Age) model in a large external test cohort of Asian individuals. Materials and Methods This single-center, retrospective study included chest radiographs from consecutive, asymptomatic Asian individuals aged 50–80 years who underwent health checkups between January 2004 and June 2018. This study performed a dedicated external test of a previously developed CXR-Age model, which predicts an age adjusted based on the risk of all-cause mortality. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of CXR-Age for all-cause, cardiovascular, lung cancer, and respiratory disease mortality were assessed using multivariable Cox or Fine-Gray models, and their added values were evaluated by likelihood ratio tests. Results A total of 36 924 individuals (mean chronological age, 58 years ± 7 [SD]; CXR-Age, 60 years ± 5; 22 352 male) were included. During a median follow-up of 11.0 years, 1250 individuals (3.4%) died, including 153 cardiovascular (0.4%), 166 lung cancer (0.4%), and 98 respiratory (0.3%) deaths. CXR-Age was a significant risk factor for all-cause (adjusted HR at chronological age of 50 years, 1.03; at 60 years, 1.05; at 70 years, 1.07), cardiovascular (adjusted HR, 1.11), lung cancer (adjusted HR for individuals who formerly smoked, 1.12; for those who currently smoke, 1.05), and respiratory disease (adjusted HR, 1.12) mortality (P < .05 for all). The likelihood ratio test demonstrated added prognostic value of CXR-Age to clinical factors, including chronological age for all outcomes (P < .001 for all). Conclusion Deep learning–based chest radiographic age was associated with various survival outcomes and had added value to clinical factors in asymptomatic Asian individuals, suggesting its generalizability. Keywords: Conventional Radiography, Thorax, Heart, Lung, Mediastinum, Outcomes Analysis, Quantification, Prognosis, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) Supplemental material is available for this article. © RSNA, 2024 See also the commentary by Adams and Bressem in this issue.

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