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The published article proposes an economic and mathematical model of the dynamics of development of the gross regional product, taking into account the influence of sanctions restrictions and increasing the innovative activity of the industrial potential of the region. To describe the dynamics of development of the region’s GRP, a differential balance equation has been compiled regarding the volume of the integral regional resource. Based on available statistical data, three trajectories of GRP development of the Samara region were constructed, corresponding to the pre-sanction period 1998 – 2008, the sanctions period 2009 – 2019, and the period 2020 – 2023. transition of the economy to innovation. It is shown that the transition from one GRP development trajectory to another is defined by special indicator logistic functions. A general theoretical curve for the dynamics of GRP development and a theoretical curve for the dynamics of development of the volume of an integral regional resource have been constructed. Numerical analysis of the proposed model showed good agreement with available statistical observations.
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