On unpredictable events in risk analysis

Abstract

• The paper focuses on unpredictability in a risk analysis context. • We review and categorize different interpretations of unpredictability. • Three main conditions for assessing unpredictability are presented. • Different examples are used to illustrate the conditions. • The conditions are discussed in light of the time and knowledge dimensions. The concept of unpredictable events is commonly referred to in the context of risk analysis. Different meanings are attributed to this concept in the literature, many of which link this type of event to the concept of black swans, tail events, and so-called “unknown unknowns”. In the present paper, we review and discuss potential conditions for labeling an event (or outcome/consequence) as unpredictable in a risk analysis setting. The proposed conditions relate to whether the available knowledge supports i) the specification of an event or outcome in the risk assessment, ii) an adequate uncertainty characterization for the event or outcome, and iii) the identification of precursor signals and warnings. These conditions are discussed in light of a contemporary perspective on risk, where the aspects of time and knowledge are given particular focus. The incorporation of these aspects and their dynamics allows for clear distinctions to be made between short-term and long-term unpredictability, as well as between ex ante and ex post perspectives in unpredictability assessments. A main conclusion is that the level of unpredictability associated with an event (or its consequences/outcomes) can vary depending on the temporal perspective and on the degree to which the conditions are met.

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