Ukrainian commodity export: challenges in the conditions of war and post-war reconstruction

Abstract

Commodity export is one of the most important sources of foreign currency income, the sufficiency of which significantly depends on the socio-economic stability of Ukraine, especially in the face of Russian military aggression. In addition, Ukrainian commodity exports play an important role in the global market of agricultural products, in particular in the markets of Africa and Asia. The purpose of the article is to verify the challenges for Ukrainian commodity exports in the conditions of war and post-war recovery and to justify the scenarios of its further development. The transformations of the dynamics and structure of domestic commodity exports under the influence of full-scale Russian aggression are assessed. Emphasis is placed on the deterioration of the commodity structure of Ukrainian exports in the direction of increasing the share of raw materials in it. The reasons and the range of discrepancies between the value and the physical volume of exports from Ukraine in terms of product groups and individual (most important) goods over a 20-year period (during 2002-2022) are revealed. Challenges and threats to the growth of Ukrainian commodity exports are analytically substantiated, given the country’s raw material orientation, in particular: high dependence on the situation on the global raw materials markets; sale of raw materials (grain, oil, ores, and metals) at low prices; deterioration of foreign trade conditions for Ukraine; a significant component of imports and tolling in exports. Three scenarios of the development of domestic export potential in the war and post-war periods are substantiated. Emphasis is placed on the socio-economic risks from the implementation of an export-oriented development model in Ukraine. Prospects of increasing the export potential in the conditions of the formation of the newest model of national economic development oriented on the expansion of the domestic market, the support of domestic producers, and the strengthening of the state’s participation in stimulating the development of strategic sectors, primarily the defense-industrial complex, machine-building, and the chemical industry, are theoretically justified.

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