Hindsight Bias in Forensic Mental Health Novices and Experts: An Exploratory Study

Abstract

Decision-making processes are vulnerable to cognitive biases like hindsight bias, with particularly fateful consequences in forensic contexts. However, while debiasing strategies have been effective in various areas, their impact in forensics is underexplored. We investigated hindsight bias and a simple awareness-based debiasing strategy in novices (n = 52) and forensic professionals (n = 49). Participants were assigned to baseline, biased, or debiased conditions and rated an offender’s risk of re-offending using case vignettes. Significant hindsight bias was found in novices, but not experts who were also more aware of biases. Debiasing proved effective in novices, indicating that raising awareness may enhance equitable forensic decision-making.

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