Are East Asian “shrinking cities” falling into a loop? Insights from the interplay between population decline and metropolitan concentration in Japan

Abstract

Addressing the challenges of shrinking cities globally remains complex, with underlying causes still requiring in-depth exploration. In Japan, the phenomenon of shrinking cities is intricately linked to Tokyo's Unipolar Concentration. Despite governmental initiatives aimed at decentralizing metropolitan growth and revitalizing declining regions, these trend–mirroring patterns observed in other East Asian nations such as South Korea and China–continues unabated. East Asia provides a unique setting for studying urbanization and population dynamics, as these countries experience rapid urban life cycles with minimal immigration influence compared to Western nations. As the first East Asian country to undergo urbanization, Japan is characterized by both population decline and the intensifying regional disparities driven by Tokyo's Unipolar Concentration. This study uncovers a critical relationship between population decline and geographic structure, revealing how remote, non-metropolitan areas are increasingly excluded from the later stages of the city life cycle. It also identifies the “mega-city paradox,” where the unsustainable growth of megacities eventually reaches a point where expansion stalls. By exploring the intrinsic link between population and geography, this research offers fresh insights and underscores the need for more holistic and sustainable population planning strategies. • Tokyo’s Unipolar Concentration shows how East Asian cities highlight global metropolitan growth alongside shrinking cities. • The study links population decline with geographic disparities, explaining why revitalization policies for shrinking areas often fail. • Challenges Life Cycle of City Theory, suggesting small and medium cities may exit the cycle due to demographic decline in the later stages. • The “Loop to Megacity Paradox” shows how shrinking populations and metropolitan growth reinforce, risking unsustainable megacities.

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