MFB: A Generalized Multimodal Fusion Approach for Bitcoin Price Prediction Using Time-Lagged Sentiment and Indicator Features

Ping Han · Hui Chen · Abdur Rasool · Qingshan Jiang · Min Yang

31 citations0/0 files storedExpert Systems with Applications

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Stock Market Forecasting Methods Blockchain Technology Applications and Security Sentiment Analysis and Opinion Mining

Abstract

Bitcoin’s volatile nature has made its price prediction a sought-after mathematical model in the FinTech industry. Existing studies, however, need to look into the critical aspect of time-lagged sentiment in Bitcoin price forecasting. This omission is significant because time-lagged sentiment captures delayed market reactions that are not immediately apparent in price movements. Moreover, the correlation between time-lagged sentiment and technical indicators and the limitations of individual machine learning and deep learning models necessitates a comprehensive approach for accurate and reliable Bitcoin price predictions. This paper introduces the multimodal fusion Bitcoin (MFB), an innovative generalized multimodal fusion approach that effectively integrates BiLSTM and BiGRU layers for complex feature extraction. The model employs the BorutaShap algorithm for feature selection and utilizes attention mechanisms and spatial dropout for optimization and generalization. MFB’s training and validation use news and tweet data combined with Bitcoin technical indicators to explore the impact of time-lagged sentiment on price movements, leading to more accurate and timely market predictions. The MFB performs superior Bitcoin prediction performance, achieving 97.63% accuracy and an MAE of 0.0065. Experiments highlight MFB’s capability to outperform existing models, offering significant insights for investors in making informed decisions. MFB’s innovative methodology, particularly in next-hour Bitcoin price forecasting, marks an advancement in financial forecasting. By capturing the nuanced dynamics of market sentiment and its delayed effects, MFB is a pioneering multimodal fusion approach in the FinTech domain, revolutionizing Bitcoin price prediction.

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1938A NEW MEASURE OF RANK CORRELATION 2023Survey of feature selection and extraction techniques for stock market prediction 2021A stock price prediction method based on deep learning technology 2023Deep learning models for price forecasting of financial time series: A review of recent advancements: 2020–2022 2022On technical trading and social media indicators for cryptocurrency price classification through deep learning 2016Proximal support vector machine based hybrid prediction models for trend forecasting in financial markets 2022A Stacking Ensemble Deep Learning Model for Bitcoin Price Prediction Using Twitter Comments on Bitcoin 2022A sentiment analysis approach to the prediction of market volatility

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