Regional Projection of Russia’s Economic Development in 2022–2023

Abstract

Abstract— The article presents findings from the analysis of macroregions’ adaptation to economic sanctions and external shocks after the accession of Crimea and Sevastopol to Russia and after the onset of the special military operation. Changes in the territorial and sectoral structure of production as well as the emergence of new sectoral and regional growth drivers are shown. The contribution of macroregions to the formation of the dynamics in the total gross regional product, final consumption of households, and gross fixed capital accumulation is estimated. The changes in the regional structure of consumer demand and income of the population are analyzed. It is noted that the growth in wages and incomes of the population in the regions does not lead to a proportional increase in consumer demand; in all macroregions, income growth was converted into a rise in savings. In 2022–2023, the growth rate of investments, including budget ones, increased significantly. The contribution of investments to the growth of total GRP exceeded the contribution made by the final consumption of households. The Ural-Volga macroregion has become a new center of economic growth.

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