Risk-adjusted observed minus expected cumulative sum (RA O-E CUSUM) chart for visualisation and monitoring of surgical outcomes

Abstract

To improve patient safety, surgeons can continually monitor the surgical outcomes of their patients. To this end, they can use statistical process control tools, which primarily originated in the manufacturing industry and are now widely used in healthcare. These tools belong to a broad family, making it challenging to identify the most suitable methodology to monitor surgical outcomes. The selected tools must balance statistical rigour with surgeon usability, enabling both statistical interpretation of trends over time and comprehensibility for the surgeons, their primary users. On one hand, the observed minus expected (O-E) chart is a simple and intuitive tool that allows surgeons without statistical expertise to view and interpret their activity; however, it may not possess the sophisticated algorithms required to accurately identify important changes in surgical performance. On the other hand, a statistically robust tool like the cumulative sum (CUSUM) method can be helpful but may be too complex for surgeons to interpret and apply in practice without proper statistical training. To address this issue, we developed a new risk-adjusted (RA) O-E CUSUM chart that aims to provide a balanced solution, integrating the visualisation strengths of a user-friendly O-E chart with the statistical interpretation capabilities of a CUSUM chart. With the RA O-E CUSUM chart, surgeons can effectively monitor patients' outcomes and identify sequences of statistically abnormal changes, indicating either deterioration or improvement in surgical outcomes. They can also quantify potentially preventable or avoidable adverse events during these sequences. Subsequently, surgical teams can try implementing changes to potentially improve their performance and enhance patient safety over time. This paper outlines the methodology for building the tool and provides a concrete example using real surgical data to demonstrate its application.

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