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The evolution of online public opinion on earthquakes: a system dynamics approach

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Public Relations and Crisis Communication Disaster Management and Resilience Public Administration and Political Analysis

Abstract

Earthquakes endanger lives and properties and trigger widespread online public opinion. If the government fails to implement emergency measures quickly, the risks associated with this online public opinion may escalate and present significant challenges in managing it. To solve this issue, this paper investigates the M5.7 earthquake in Yibin, China, as a case study, drawing data from China’s Sina Weibo. It also develops an evolutionary model of earthquake online public opinion using the life cycle theory of public opinion dissemination, public opinion crisis management theory, and system dynamics methods. This study chooses a system dynamic model because it can capture overall trends and feedback cycles. This approach provides a comprehensive view of the evolution of the whole system’s behavior and public opinion during the crisis. This model analyzes the evolution of the online public opinion of the earthquake from the perspective of the earthquake, netizens (social media users), media, and government. This study explores the differences between online public opinion by adjusting the size of different variables in the model. This provides an entry point for better control of the development and communication of earthquake online public opinion. The findings indicate that, following the earthquake, the media exerted the most significant influence on public opinion, mainly through media participation, diffusion, and impact, demonstrating a significantly positive correlation with the magnitude of public opinion. Moreover, the simulation revealed that the government is leading in preventing and controlling online public opinion. This study presents the following innovations: (1) It builds a comprehensive online public opinion model for earthquakes, which provides insights for studying online public opinion regarding other sudden natural disasters. (2) It employs system dynamics to simulate earthquake online public opinion, providing countermeasures and recommendations for the government to manage and regulate this discourse effectively.

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References

1998Reframing Crisis Management 2007Crisis Management in Hindsight: Cognition, Communication, Coordination, and Control 2013Social Media in Disaster Risk Reduction and Crisis Management 2013Every tweet counts? How sentiment analysis of social media can improve our knowledge of citizens’ political preferences with an application to Italy and France 1992Policies, decisions and information sources for modeling 2021What makes people share political content on social media? The role of emotion, authority and ideology 2014Coping with information in social media: The effects of network structure and knowledge on perception of information value 2022Early detection of emergency events from social media: a new text clustering approach

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