Time-series Stay Frequency for Multi-City Next Location Prediction using Multiple BERTs

Abstract

Human Mobility Prediction Challenge 2024 was organized to compare human future movement prediction methods using a unified dataset. The challenge focuses on human movement prediction in multiple cities with varying numbers of users. Many existing movement prediction methods train deep learning models using large-scale movement histories from cities and make predictions. While cities with large users have sufficient training data, smaller cities with fewer users may face challenges due to insufficient data, raising concerns about lower prediction accuracy. Additionally, it is difficult to treat stay locations between different cities' movement histories due to differences in spatial area arrangement, making it challenging to share data across cities. To address this issue, we propose human movement prediction method that utilizes time-series stay frequency patterns, which can be commonly applied across different cities. This method demonstrated superiority in predicting movements in cities with fewer users compared to models trained and predicted using only the movement histories of the target city. Furthermore, the method achieved top 10 prediction accuracy in HuMob Challenge 2024.

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