Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Exports: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism

Kyle Handley · Fariha Kamal · Ryan Monarch

45 citations0/0 files storedAmerican Economic Journal Applied Economics

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Global trade and economics COVID-19, Geopolitics, Technology, Migration Economic and Technological Innovation

Abstract

We examine the impacts of the 2018–2019 US import tariff increases on US exports through the lens of supply chain linkages. Using 2016 confidential firm-trade linked data, we identify exporters who were importing products that eventually faced tariff increases to construct product-level exposure to import tariffs. We find that the most exposed products had lower exports in 2018–2019, with the largest effects in 2019. The decline in exports in 2019 is equivalent to an ad valorem tariff on US exports of 2 percent to 4 percent. (JEL F13, F14, F23, L14)

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2001The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade 2007Trade Liberalization, Intermediate Inputs, and Productivity: Evidence from Indonesia 2010Imported Intermediate Inputs and Domestic Product Growth: Evidence from India 2003Can Vertical Specialization Explain the Growth of World Trade?2019The Return to Protectionism*2019The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare 2018Input Linkages and the Transmission of Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence from the 2011 Tōhoku Earthquake 2017A Portrait of Trade in Value-Added over Four Decades

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