Resilience of the Socio-Economic System of Ukraine to the Shocks Caused by the War: Specifics of Formation and Response

Abstract

The full-scale aggression of the Russian Federation has caused a number of fundamentally new shocks for Ukraine, which it had neither economic nor time resources to adapt to. The ability to anticipate possible attacks, quickly recover from shocks and adapt to the new reality (constant bombardment, destruction of housing, lack of electricity, mobilisation, lack of convenient transport links with other countries, etc.) has become critical. The strength and nature of war shocks determine new methods and tools for their prediction and measurement, which is extremely difficult in the context of the inevitable limitation of information, both comprehensive and selective, during war. In such circumstances, measuring the actual state of the system after the shock has started relies on models and big data, while assessment and forecasting, primarily ex ante, relies on monitoring, including defined development trajectories. Determining possible responses to the effects of shocks requires clarifying the main aspects of the formation and implementation of resilience (natural resource, economic, demographic, socio-psychological), taking into account their interrelationships and different rates of change, powers and capabilities of individual governance actors (supranational, national, local, and personal), including the specific role of household resources and their consumption behaviour. Of particular importance is the scale of the system and the appropriate response tools, the focus on mono- or multi-subject governance, coordination mechanisms, and the formality/informality of institutions. In particular, in Ukraine, informal institutions, mainly at the local level (territorial defence, volunteer movement, etc.), have proved to be very important.

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