Estimating the impact of new rail service on travel behaviour of current bus passengers using smart card data

Abstract

Estimating the impact of new public transportation infrastructure is essential for network efficiency. This study uses one weekday of smart card data to estimate the impact of planned rail service on bus passengers’ travel behaviour. Using the metro extension project in the metropolitan city of İzmir, Türkiye as a case study, we developed a methodology involving a trip chaining algorithm, inter-route relationship analysis, and travel time calculations. Our estimations show that about 55% of bus passengers are shifting due to a significant reduction in travel time, while 20% find using the extension impractical, necessitating continued bus service. The rest of the bus passengers can potentially be inclined to use new infrastructure by improving the transfer conditions, underlining the potential focus for planners to increase the use of the new service. Our research offers valuable insights for policymakers and planners, ensuring the adaptation of transportation systems to meet changing travel behaviour.

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