Mask wars: Sourcing a critical medical product from China in times of COVID-19

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic dramatically heightened global demand for critical medical goods, with China being a key supplier. This paper examines the political factors that eased global access to face masks, a vital product during the initial phase of the pandemic. Employing a triple difference-in-differences event study framework, we compare the export dynamics of face masks with those of similar products. Our findings indicate that face mask prices surged after the outbreak of the pandemic, and China’s exports increased in response. Amid global shortages, political alignment at the national and subnational levels, particularly through political ties with Chinese provinces, played a significant role in driving the increase in China’s face mask exports to partner countries. These political connections contributed to export growth at both the extensive and intensive margins. Moreover, sister city relationships appear to have assisted in mitigating the early price increases. • China’s exports of face masks surged due to global pandemic demand spikes. • A triple-difference event study framework was used to analyze export dynamics. • National and subnational political ties were drivers of China’s mask export growth. • Political drivers outweighed past trade, FDI, and traditional gravity factors as drivers. • Sister city relationships helped reduce face mask prices early in the pandemic.

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