Uncertainty, Planning, and Neoliberalism

Abstract

This paper proposes a certainty framework to address challenges posed by the abstract and elusive nature of uncertainty within planning systems, particularly under neoliberal ideology. Through a qualitative approach and critical literature review, the study develops a novel analytical framework that characterizes various types of certainty and factors that shape them. The framework introduces a certainty spectrum that includes absolute certainty, relative certainty, and absolute uncertainty, depending on the extent to which key criteria—variables, means, and ends — are known/predictable or unknown/unpredictable. While primarily focused on the theoretical foundation, the paper also opens pathways for future empirical research. The framework serves as a practical tool for planners to navigate the complexities of neoliberal policies, highlighting that attempts to enhance certainty through rigid or overly flexible approaches may paradoxically increase uncertainty. By adopting a nuanced understanding of certainty and uncertainty and using methods to assess the degree of achievable certainty in practice, planners can make more informed and adaptive decisions in a neoliberal context. This paper contributes to planning literature by offering new insights and practical tools for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers, promoting resilience and adaptability in uncertain planning environments.

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