China’s Red Sea gambit: a paradigm shift of NSAGs and the Maritime strategic dilemma in the Middle East

Abstract

The surge in attacks by non-state armed groups (NSAGs) like the Houthis in Yemen following the 7 October 2023, attack on Israel by Hamas has created a complex situation for China in the Red Sea region. These actions have put oil shipments at risk and threatened the stability of important maritime routes that are strategic chokepoints in the region. This research analyzes the increase of NSAGs in the Middle East from a neorealist perspective, with a focus on the strategic response of China as a rising power. China, heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil, aims to protect its Maritime Silk Road (MSR) and advance its economic and geopolitical interests in the Mediterranean and Indian Ocean regions by securing sea lines of communication (SLOCs). Ultimately, significant questions remain: What are the regional and global implications of NSAGs disrupting international passages and strategic maritime choke points? Can China, Arab nations, and the GCC achieve collective security in the Red Sea region to safeguard the MSR? Combining a qualitative analysis of China’s geopolitical role in the Middle East with a quantitative examination of its economic relationships reveals new insights into how these factors shape regional security dynamics.

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