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On the Robustness and Provenance of the Gambler’s Fallacy
16 references·0 citing·36 second hop
On the Robustness and Provenance of the Gambler’s Fallacy (2025)On the Robustness and Provenance of the G…Cognitive Uncertainty (2023)Cognitive UncertaintyOne and Done? Optimal Decisions From Very Few Samples (2014)One and Done? Optimal Decisio…The Gambler's and Hot-Hand Fallacies: Theory and Applications (2009)The Gambler's and Hot-Hand Fa…Biases in casino betting: The hot hand and the gambler’s fallacy (2006)Biases in casino betting: The…The hot hand fallacy and the gambler’s fallacy: Two faces of subjective randomness? (2004)The hot hand fallacy and the …Predicting the next step of a random walk: experimental evidence of regime-shifting beliefs (2002)Predicting the next step of a…Inference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers (2002)Inference by Believers in the…A model of investor sentiment1We are grateful to the NSF for financial support, and to Oliver Blanchard, Alon Brav, John Campbell (a referee), John Cochrane, Edward Glaeser, J.B. Heaton, Danny Kahneman, David Laibson, Owen Lamont, Drazen Prelec, Jay Ritter (a referee), Ken Singleton, Dick Thaler, an anonymous referee, and the editor, Bill Schwert, for comments.1 (1998)A model of investor sentiment…Rationality: psychological and philosophical perspectives (1994)Rationality: psychological an…A test of the gambler's fallacy: Evidence from pari-mutuel games (1994)A test of the gambler's falla…Notes: The “Gambler's Fallacy” in Lottery Play (1993)Notes: The “Gambler's Fallacy…How to Make Cognitive Illusions Disappear: Beyond “Heuristics and Biases” (1991)How to Make Cognitive Illusio…Conservatism in human information processing (1982)Conservatism in human informa…Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Judgment under Uncertainty: H…Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)Subjective probability: A jud…Belief in the law of small numbers. (1971)Belief in the law of small nu…A model of investor sentiment /On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance (1997)Costly Search and Mutual Fund Flows (1998)Berk-Nash Equilibrium: A Framework for Modeling Agents With Misspecified Models (2016)Stereotypes* (2016)Psychology-Based Models of Asset Prices and Trading Volume (2018)On the psychology of prediction. (1973)The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences (1985)Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing (2001)Chapter 18 A survey of behavioral finance (2003)A Sparsity-Based Model of Bounded Rationality * (2014)Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment (1971)Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (2004)Outcome of psychological treatments of pathological gambling: a review and meta‐analysis (2005)Twenty years of “hot hand” research: Review and critique (2006)Decision Making Under the Gambler’s Fallacy: Evidence from Asylum Judges, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires * (2016)American Economic Review (2019)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Judgment under Uncertainty (1982)On the reality of cognitive illusions. (1996)Measuring Expectations (2004)Rational choice and the structure of the environment. (1956)Individual Choice Behavior (1962)Unpacking the exploration–exploitation tradeoff: A synthesis of human and animal literatures. (2015)A meta-analytic review of two modes of learning and the description-experience gap. (2017)The anchoring bias reflects rational use of cognitive resources (2017)The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns (1992)Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency (1993)A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets (1999)Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies (2000)Integración de los mercados financieros Latinoamericanos por medio de MILA (2020)The Intuitive Psychologist And His Shortcomings: Distortions in the Attribution Process (1977)The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981)Development of NASA-TLX (Task Load Index): Results of Empirical and Theoretical Research (1988)Epistemic Injustice (2007)
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References

  • 1974Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases28,742 cited
  • 1972Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness4,876 cited
  • 1971Belief in the law of small numbers.3,244 cited
  • 1998A model of investor sentiment1We are grateful to the NSF for financial support, and to Oliver Blanchard, Alon Brav, John Campbell (a referee), John Cochrane, Edward Glaeser, J.B. Heaton, Danny Kahneman, David Laibson, Owen Lamont, Drazen Prelec, Jay Ritter (a referee), Ken Singleton, Dick Thaler, an anonymous referee, and the editor, Bill Schwert, for comments.12,865 cited
  • 1991How to Make Cognitive Illusions Disappear: Beyond “Heuristics and Biases”1,160 cited
  • 1982Conservatism in human information processing1,004 cited
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  • 2004The hot hand fallacy and the gambler’s fallacy: Two faces of subjective randomness?471 cited
  • 2009The Gambler's and Hot-Hand Fallacies: Theory and Applications381 cited
  • 1993Notes: The “Gambler's Fallacy” in Lottery Play294 cited
  • 2023Cognitive Uncertainty260 cited
  • 2002Predicting the next step of a random walk: experimental evidence of regime-shifting beliefs250 cited
  • 1994Rationality: psychological and philosophical perspectives

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209 cited
  • 2006Biases in casino betting: The hot hand and the gambler’s fallacy188 cited
  • 1994A test of the gambler's fallacy: Evidence from pari-mutuel games160 cited
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