Assessment of Possible Parameters of Interaction between Mechanical Engineering and Metallurgy in Russia in the Perspective up to 2035

Abstract

The article provides an analysis of the export and import of mechanical engineering and metallurgical products - with details on certain areas of production - based on which a conclusion is made about the high degree of import dependence of mechanical engineering and the export-oriented nature of metallurgy, which led to a “desynchronization” of the results of the functioning of these types of economic activity for Russia: domestic metallurgy can be considered the basis for Russian mechanical engineering based on the results of functioning in the period up to2022 with a very big stretch. An attempt was made to assess the possible parameters of the functioning of mechanical engineering and metallurgy in Russia during the implementation of the updated Consolidated Strategy for the Development of the Manufacturing Industry until 2030 and for the period up to 2035. The assessment of the parameters is based on the premise that an increase in the production of mechanical engineering products will accordingly cause an increase in metallurgical production in accordance with the indicators of the Consolidated Strategy. According to the Consolidated Strategy, mechanical engineering, as the main producer of high-tech products, should increase its production volume by 2.5 times by 2035. In accordance with this, metallurgical production should increase, while maintaining the basic level of intermediate consumption of metallurgical products in mechanical engineering. Based on these indicators, using the table of use of domestic products in basic prices, possible parameters of future changes in the interaction of metallurgy and mechanical engineering were determined. Hypothetically, an increase in the output of metallurgical products should require 2.6 trillion rubles of investment in metallurgical production and 5.4 trillion rubles in mechanical engineering.

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