How COVID-19 impacted Chicago Metra’s ridership loss and recovery: 2019–2022

Abstract

This study examines the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on weekday ridership patterns of the Metra commuter rail system serving the greater Chicago area from January 2019 to October 2022. A sequential statistical modeling framework is implemented to relate the spatial factors---including socioeconomic, land use, and sociodemographic variables--- to ridership losses and recovery over time. Our findings indicate that workplace occupancy reductions due to remote work policies were the primary cause of weekday ridership loss, while gas prices and transit's level of service were also significant factors. Spatial analysis revealed that the majority of customers stopped riding Metra due to the transition to working from home. Results also show that Metra's transition to a regional-rail model on several lines, as well as ticket price discounts effectively attracted other group of riders such as black and educator populations, those aged 0-24, and those traveling to industrial, medical, or educational locations.

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