Preprintgreen2025

Replicating patterns of prospect theory for territorial decision under risk

Jaïs Adam‐Troian · Éric Bonetto · Thomas Arciszewski

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies Leadership, Behavior, and Decision-Making Studies

Abstract

Despite the prevalence and significance of territorial disputes in human history, psychological research on territorial decision-making in high-risk contexts remains sparse. This study investigates the applicability of Prospect Theory in the context of territorial decision-making under risk, replicating and extending the seminal work of Kahneman and Tversky (1979), recently replicated by Ruggeri et al. (2020). To do so, we conducted two pre-registered replication studies in the US (N = 149) and the UK (N = 253), based on Ruggeri et al. (2020)’s protocol. Problems were modified by replacing the original financial dilemmas by territorial ones. Across studies, most responses to individual items were replicated, despite between-study variability (replication rate of 69% in Study 1, 81% in Study 2). More importantly, replication rates from theoretical contrasts probing into each of the five heuristics predicted by Prospect Theory were statistically identical to those of Ruggeri et al. 2020 (77% in Study 1, 92% in Study 2). These confirmed the presence of certainty, framing, isolation and overweighting of small probabilities effects while providing evidence against the robustness of the reflection effect. These findings suggest that the cognitive biases and heuristics identified by Prospect Theory extend to territorial decisions as well. This research provides valuable insights into strategic decision-making in conflict contexts and underscores the robustness of Prospect Theory's predictions across different problem contexts. Future research could build on these findings to develop more effective strategies for deterrence, negotiation, and resolution in geopolitical conflicts.