The Circular Economy and Climate Change: The State of National and Global Evidence on Mitigation Potential

Abstract

Developing transformative pathways for industry’s compliance with international climate targets requires model-based insights on how supply- and demand-side measures affect industry, material cycles, global supply chains, socio-economic activities and service provisioning supporting societal wellbeing. We review the recent literature modelling the industrial system in Low Energy and Materials Demand (LEMD) futures, which mitigates environmental impacts without relying on risky future negative emissions and technological fixes. We identify 77 innovative studies drawing on nine distinct industry modelling traditions. We critically assess system definitions and scopes, biophysical and thermodynamic consistency, granularity and heterogeneity, and operationalization of demand and service provision. We find large potentials of combined supply- and demand-side measures to reduce current economy-wide material use by 56%, energy use by 40-60%, and GHG emissions by 70% to net-zero. We call for strengthening interdisciplinary collaborations between industry modelling traditions and demand-side research to produce more insightful scenarios, and discuss challenges and recommendations. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-110822-044428

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