Trends in the development of Russian industry and its branches during the new anti-Russian sanctions

Abstract

Objective: to identify sector-related trends in the industrial production dynamics in Russia; to assess the contribution of various sectors, as well as factors of physical volume and prices growth in the value of the Russian industry and its sectors under the new anti-Russian sanctions (2022-2024). Methods: the study is based on Rosstat data on the cost of shipped goods and production volume indices for four aggregated types of economic activity and detailed industrial sectors. We used factor analysis, decomposition of growth rates by sector, and the Divisia method to decompose value gains into factors of changes in output and prices. Results: the author identified trends in the cost of industrial production in the first three years of the new anti-Russian sanctions. The year 2022 is shown to be the most difficult for the manufacturing industry, after which recovery growth began. For the extractive industry, the greatest negative effect of sanctions occurred in 2023, after which some recovery also started. The situation was very different in specific industries. The sectoral decomposition of the growth rates of the cost of industrial production allowed identifying the industries that made the greatest contribution to the increase and decrease in the growth rates of industrial production in each year under study. Factor decomposition of the growth rate of industrial production using the Divisia method revealed that in 2022 the price factor made the greatest contribution to the growth rate of cost. In 2023, the impact of both factors (volume and prices) was comparable, although the price factor was still predominant. In 2024, the contribution of the price factor increased again, which indicates some overheating of the economy. The differences between the influence of the price factor and the factor of physical production volumes in specific industries were identified and explained. For 2023 and 2024, a weak reverse correlation was established between changes in prices and volumes in industrial sectors. The author concludes that the supply economy prevailed over the demand economy in that period. Scientific novelty: for the first time for the Russian economy, a detailed analysis of the dynamics of industrial sectors over the three years of new anti-Russian sanctions is presented; the contribution of various sectors to the growth of the cost of industrial production in the country is estimated, as well as the contribution of price factors and physical production volumes to the total cost of industry and its sectors. Practical significance: the data obtained can be useful in managing structural shifts in industry and developing an effective industrial policy aimed at countering the harsh sanctions regime.

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