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Ammonia pipelines are are gaining renewed attention as key enablers of hydrogen energy systems, offering a practical solution to hydrogen transport and storage. However, current safety standards remain insufficient, as they often rely on risk models developed for natural gas or petroleum pipelines. This paper presents a novel, data-driven risk assessment methodology tailored specifically developed to establish scientifically justified safety distances for ammonia pipelines. A comprehensive dataset of 232 ammonia pipeline accidents spanning 1970 to 2023 was systematically collected and analyzed, revealing material and welding defects account for 36.21% of failures. By applying Bayesian updating to failure data, individual and societal risk assessment models tailored explicitly for ammonia pipelines were developed. Risk assessment simulations indicate that Pipeline-1(250 mm / 25 bar) reach an individual risk level of 10-6 at 300 m, while Pipeline-3(150 mm / 20 bar) shows similar risk grade at 190 m. In comparison, Pipeline-2(200 mm / 25 bar) and Pipeline-4(100 mm / 15 bar) reach 10-7 at 325 m and 145 m, respectively. The proposed methodology delivers a scientifically grounded basis for determining safety distances, and offers actionable insights for improving ammonia pipeline design, permitting, and safety regulation.
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