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Counterfactual Histories and Counterfactual Futures: A New Direction for Cognition

Meenal Banga · Mia Chang-Zunino · Teppo Felin · Felipe A. Csaszar · Gino Cattani · Sharon Alvarez +2 more

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Management and Organizational Studies Organizational Leadership and Management Strategies

Abstract

This symposium advances the exploration of imagination as a structured cognitive process that shapes strategic thinking, innovation, and entrepreneurship. While imagination is often perceived as spontaneous, free-associative, or akin to daydreaming, research in cognitive science and psychology reveals that counterfactual imagination—focused on reconstructing pasts and envisioning futures—follows an identifiable structure. This symposium highlights the role of counterfactual imagination in generating novel strategies, reassessing historical contingencies, and envisioning desirable futures. Panelists will discuss the epistemic value of counterfactual thinking, its function in sensemaking, the role of AI in counterfactual imagination, the construction of environments through the use of counterfactual imagination, and its potential to be cultivated as a skill for strategic management and entrepreneurship.

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