Short-Run Mechanistic Probability

Abstract

This paper sketches a concept of higher-level objective probability (“short-run mechanistic probability”, SRMP) inspired partly by a style of explanation of rel-ative frequencies known as the “method of arbitrary functions”. SRMP has the potential to fill the need for a theory of objective probability which has wide appli-cation at higher levels and which gives probability causal connections to observed relative frequency (without making it equivalent to relative frequency). Though this approach provides probabilities on a space of event types, it does not provide probabilities for outcomes on particular trials. This allows SRMP to coexist with lower-level probabilities which do govern individual trials. Note: Aside from minor changes and the addition of two appendices, this is the same paper as (Abrams, 2000). Appendix A provides background which may be helpful to some readers unfamiliar with mathematical probability and philosoph-ical discussions of probability. Appendix B gives a more mathematically rigorous version of an informal argument presented in section 2. 1. Introduction. A

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