Projections of automobile ownership and use based on household lifestyle factors. [To year 2025]

Abstract

This report projects to the year 2025 the total number of automobiles that would be owned by American households, (total ownership) and the total number of miles that these vehicles would be driven per day (total use) given certain assumptions about the future of U.S. society. These assumptions relate to demographic, economic, and geographical attrributes of U.S. society that are relevant to the automobile. The impacts of these assumptions were analyzed via a set of projection models which explicitly recognize the relationship between these particular attributes of society and the automobile. Part I presents an overivew of the research and Part II the results. The methodology used to generate the projections is discussed in some detail in Part III. In a base case projection the number of automobiles and average daily travel of Americans double by 2025 due to increases in populaion, headship rates (households per population), and incomes. economic variables account for about half of this increase as indicated by a no economic growth projection in which ownership and daily travel increase just over 40% and 50%, respectively. Other projections explore the effects of differing assumptions regarding rates of household formations, population growth, and income growth. Model projections suggest that changed work schedules and the re-emergence of cities as growth areas will have only slight impacts on future travel and vehicle ownership.

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