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Preface. A Personal Note from William T. Scherer. A Personal Note from William F. Gibson. A Personal Note from Scott F. Ferber. Original Preface from Jack Gibson. Acknowledgments. 1. Introduction. 1.1 What is a System? 1.2 Terminology Confusion. 1.3 Equals Operations Research Plus Policy Analysis. 1.4 Attributes of Large-Scale Systems. 1.5 Intelligent Transportation (ITS): An Example of a Large-Scale System. 1.6 Integration. 1.7 What Makes a Systems Analysis Different? 1.8 Distant Roots of Analysis. 1.9 Immediate Precursors to Analysis. 1.10 Development of As a Distinct Discipline: The Influence of RAND. Historical Case Study: IIASA (A). Exercises. Case Study: Fun at Six Flags? Historical Case Study: IIASA (B). 2. Six Major Phases of Analysis. 2.1 The System Method: Six Major Phases. 2.2 The Goal-Centered or Top-Down Approach. 2.3 The Index of Performance Concept. 2.4 Developing Alternative Scenarios. 2.5 Ranking Alternatives. 2.6 Iteration and the Error-Embracing Approach. 2.7 The Action Phase: The Life-Cycle of a System. Exercises. Case Study: Methodologies or Chaos? Part A. Case Study: Methodologies or Chaos? Part B. Case Study: Wal-Mart Crisis! 3. Goal Development. 3.1 Seven Steps in Goal Development. 3.2 On Generalizing the Question. 3.3 The Descriptive Scenario. 3.4 The Normative Scenario. 3.5 The Axiological Component. 3.6 Developing an Objectives Tree. 3.7 Fitch's Goals for Urbanizing America: An Example of Objectives Tree Construction. 3.8 Content of Fitch's Goals. 3.9 Validate. 3.10 Iterate. Case Study: Distance Learning in the Future? Historical Case Study: Goals of 4C, Inc. 4. The Index of Performance. 4.1 Introduction. 4.2 Desirable Characteristics for an Index of Performance. 4.3 Economic Criteria. 4.4 Compound Interest. 4.5 Four Common Criteria for Economic Efficiency. 4.6 Is there a Problem with Multiple Criteria? 4.7 What is Wrong with the B-C Ratio? 4.8 Can IRR be Fixed? 4.9 Expected Monetary Value. 4.10 Nonmonetary Performance Indices. Exercises. Case Study: Sky High Airlines Case Study: Bridges-Where to Spend the Security Dollars? Case Study: Measuring the Process and Outcomes of Regional Transportation Collaboration. Case Study: Baseball Free Agent Draft. 5. Develop Alternative Candidate Solutions. 5.1 Introduction. 5.2 The Classical Approach to Creativity. 5.3 Concepts in Creativity. 5.4 Brainstorming. 5.5 Brainwriting. 5.6 Dynamic Confrontation. 5.7 Zwicky's Morphological Box. 5.8 The Options Field/Options Profile Approach. 5.9 Computer Creativity. 5.10 Computer Simulation: a Tool in Option Development. 5.11 Why a Dynamic Simulation for Creating Options? 5.12 Context-Free Simulation Models? 5.13 Bottom-Up Simulation or Top-Down? 5.14 Lessons from the Susquehanna River Basin Model. 5.15 The Forrester Urban Model (FUM) and Societal Values. 5.16 Extensions and Variations. 5.17 Where to go from Here? Exercises. Case Study: Winnebago. Case Study: Distance Learning in the Future? Historical Case Study: Real-Time Television Link with Mars Orbiter. Historical Case Study: A Highway Vehicle Simulator. RFP from DOT. 6. Rank Alternative Candidates. 6.1 Introduction. 6.2 Rating and Ranking Methods. 6.3 Condorcet and Arrow Voting Paradoxes. 6.4 A MultiStage Rating Process. 6.5 Decision Analysis. 6.6 Basic Axioms of Decision Theory. 6.7 Properties of Utility Functions. 6.8 Constructing a Utility Curve. 6.9 Some Decision Classic Examples. 6.10 Estimation Theory in Decision Analysis. 6.11 Some Practical Problems with Decision Analysis. 6.12 Practical Trade Studies. Exercises. Case Study: Training Center Location. Case Study: Corporate Headquarters Location. Case Study: Business School Selection. 7. Iteration and Transition. 7.1 Iteration. 7.2 Segment and Focus. 7.3 The Transition Scenario. 7.4 The Gantt Chart. 7.5 Interaction Matrices. 7.6 The Delta Chart. 7.7 The Audit Trail. 7.8 Cost of Failure to Stay on Schedule. 7.9 Responsibilities of Major Actors. 7.10 Sign-Offs by Cooperating Groups. Exercises. 8. Management of the Team. 8.1 Introduction. 8.2 Personal Style in an Interdisciplinary Team. 8.3.Out-Scoping and In-Scoping in a System Study. 8.4 Building the Team. 8.5 Tips on Managing the Team. 8.6 Functional or Project Management? 8.7 How to Make an Effective Oral Presentation. 8.8 How to Write a Report. 9. Project Management. 9.1 Introduction. 9.2 Project Management Versus Process Management. 9.3 The Hersey-Blanchard Four-Mode Theory. 9.4 Relation of Management Style to Project Management. 9.5 Preliminary Project Planning. 9.6 Dealing with Conflict in Project Management. 9.7 Life-Cycle Planning and Design. 9.8 PERT/CPM Program Planning Method: An Example. 9.9 Quality Control in Projects. Case Study: Project Management. 10. The 10 Golden Rules of Analysis. 10.1 Introduction. 10.2 Rule 1: There Always Is a Client. 10.3 Rule 2: Your Client Does Not Understand His Own Problem. 10.4 Rule 3: The Original Problem Statement is too Specific: You Must Generalize the Problem to Give it Contextual Integrity. 10.5 Rule 4: The Client Does Not Understand the Concept of the Index of Performance. 10.6 Rule 5: You are the Analyst, Not the Decision-Maker. 10.7 Rule 6: Meet the Time Deadline and the Cost Budget. 10.8 Rule 7: Take a Goal-Centered Approach to the Problem, Not a Technology-Centered or Chronological Approach . 10.9 Rule 8: Nonusers Must be Considered in the and in the Final Recommendations. 10.10 Rule 9: The Universal Computer Model is a Fantasy. 10.11 Rule 10: The Role of Decision-Maker in Public is Often a Confused One. References. Index.
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