Trade among developing countries : theory, policy issues, and principal trends

Abstract

The main conclusion is that non-fuel trade among developing countries, excluding capital-surplus oil exporters, accounted for a remarkably stable share of their total trade between 1963 and 1977. This constancy, however, conceals two interesting opposing trends: the share of manufactures exported to developing countries has been falling sharply while that of non-fuel primary commodities has been rising, the latter largely because of the demands of the newly industrializing countries (NICs). Nevertheless, the dynamism of manufactures has meant that they makeup an increasing share of trade among developing countries. Four particular points emerge from the evidence: (a) there is no obvious sign of a bias against trade among developing countries, except by whatever effect their own commercial policies may have; (b) the more inward-looking countries tend to send a higher proportion of their exports to other developing countries, and regional integration strengthens this effect; (c) exports of manufactures of developing countries are much more capital intensive than those to industrialized countries; and (d) exports to developing countries markets may not be the vital first stage for capital goods exports that is sometimes supposed.

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