Abstract
Abstract The demand for an accurate financial risk management involving larger numbers of assets is strong not only in view of the financial crisis of 2007–2009. Especially dependencies among assets have not been captured adequately. While standard multivariate copulas have added some flexibility, this flexibility is insufficient in higher dimensional applications. Vine copulas can fill this gap by benefiting from the rich class of existing bivariate parametric copula families. Exploiting this in combination with GARCH models for the margins, we develop a regular vine copula based factor model for asset returns, the Regular Vine Market Sector model, which is motivated by the classical CAPM and shown to be superior to the CAVA model proposed by Heinen and Valdesogo (2009). The model can also be used to separate the systematic and idiosyncratic risk of specific stocks, and we explicitly discuss how vine copula models can be employed for active and passive portfolio management. In particular, Value-at-Risk forecasting and asset allocation are treated in detail. All developed models and methods are used to analyze the Euro Stoxx 50 index, a major market indicator for the Eurozone. Relevant benchmark models such as the popular DCC model and the common Student's t copula are taken into account.
Citations in this library
Stored only when both papers are in the corpus — 163 citations exist upstream.
References
1982Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation1964CAPITAL ASSET PRICES: A THEORY OF MARKET EQUILIBRIUM UNDER CONDITIONS OF RISK*1992The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns2002Dynamic Conditional Correlation1975THE VALUATION OF RISK ASSETS AND THE SELECTION OF RISKY INVESTMENTS IN STOCK PORTFOLIOS AND CAPITAL BUDGETS**This paper is another in a series of interrelated theoretical and statistical studies of corporate financial and investment policies being made under grants from the Rockefeller Foundation, and more recently the Ford Foundation, to the Harvard Business School. The generous support for this work is most gratefully acknowledged. The author is also much indebted to his colleagues Professors Bishop, Christenson, Kahr, Raiffa, and (especially) Schlaifer, for extensive discussion and commentary on an earlier draft of this paper; but responsibility for any errors or imperfections remains strictly his own.[Professor Sharpe's paper, “Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions of Risk” (Journal of Finance, September 1964) appeared after this paper was in final form and on its way to the printers. My first section, which parallels the first half of his paper (with corresponding conclusions), sets the algebraic framework for sections II, III and VI, (which have no counterpart in his paper) and for section IV on the equilibrium prices of risk assets, concerning which our results differ significantly for reasons which will be explored elsewhere. Sharpe does not take up the capital budgeting problem developed in section V below.]1997The variation of certain speculative prices1998Evaluating Interval Forecasts2001Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets