Manchester motorway box: post survey research of induced traffic effects

Abstract

In 1994, the UK's SACTRA committee published their seminal Report on Trunk Roads and the Generation of Traffic. Following a review of a wide range of evidence, they concluded that induced (generated) traffic can and does occur, but its size and significance is likely to vary considerably in different circumstances. The completion of the M60 Manchester Motorway Box was one of the last major links in the UK's national road network. The largescale of the scheme suggested that induced traffic effects should be easier to detect than in smaller schemes. In the current study, the Before, After and Household Interview choice data have been linked to modelled levelof service data and land-use data. This combined dataset has been used toestimate disaggregate models which represent frequency, mode, destinationand time of day choice decisions within a hierarchical structure. The useof a hierarchical structure allows the scale of the different effects to be measured in a parametric form, and also allows the construction of a detailed (market segmented) travel demand model. A further aim of the analysis is to distinguish the induced traffic effects from any other changes that may have occurred. The findings from the analysis phase, including analysis of the ability of the weighting procedure to correct for the trip-length bias apparent in intercept surveys is reported. An approach to accountfor this bias when estimating from intercept data alone is discussed. A key and novel feature of the analysis is a test that enables the relative impact of cross-sectional and longitudinal effects to be determined. This test is undertaken by specifying the After behaviour to be a function of both the Before costs and the change in costs between the Before and After cases. For the covering abstract see ITRD E145999

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