DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF THE GREATER MANCHESTER STRATEGY PLANNING MODEL

Abstract

The structure of GMSPM (Greater Manchester Strategic Planning Model) involves a dynamic transport/land-use modelling framework linking MVA's Strategic Transport (START) model with the DELTA land-use model of the David Simmonds Consultancy. DELTA is run for each year of the modelled period (1991 to 2011) and START is run every fifth year to allow the re-calculation of accessibility and environmental indicators. These indicators form the inputs to DELTA's land-use forecasting process, and the outputs are revised measures of the location of population, households and trip attractors, and car ownership forecasts. DELTA can vary car ownership in response to changes in the relative accessibility of car travel, using relationships developed by MVA for DETR. Output from a series of demonstration runs of GMSPM was used to support the provisional Local Transport Plan (LTP) submission in 1999, and the model is now being used to test a range of strategies, prior to the submission of the full LTP in July 2000. The paper describes the structure of GMSPM and demonstrates how it has facilitated the testing and development of strategies, and provided the essential elements for a wide-ranging assessment of policies for the Greater Manchester conurbation. For the covering abstract see ITRD E108404.

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