A METHOD FOR ESTIMATING LONG-TERM CHANGES IN TIME-OF-DAY TRAVEL DEMAND

Janusz Supernak

7 citations0/0 files storedTransportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board

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Transportation Planning and Optimization Traffic control and management Traffic Prediction and Management Techniques

Abstract

One of the desired features of a travel demand model is an ability to estimate not only 24-hr traffic volumes but also their distributions during the day. In this paper, usefulness of the recently proposed person-category trip generation model to address this issue is examined. A method to estimate time-of-day productions and attractions is proposed. The time-of-day travel profiles of homogeneous groups of persons from Lodz, Poland, and Baltimore, Maryland, are examined. Category-specific, time-of-day travel patterns appear consistent for different subareas within a given metropolitan area, whereas the differences in travel profiles among person-categories are high. This modeling approach provides insight into long-term changes in time-of-day travel distribution as a result of such trends as increase in female employment, increase in average age of the population, increase in automobile availability level, and so on. Forecast and policy implications are also discussed.

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2000Estimating time dependent O‐D trip tables during peak periods 2005The short-term variability and the long-term changes of individual spatial behavior in urban areas

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