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This paper considers likely trends of road traffic increase in both urban and non-urban areas in the UK, assuming that the current forecasts of total traffic increase are accurate. The method used is to examine specific past trends and compare them with available forecasts for different road types. Various possible scenarios are also considered. Over the next 30 years, it seems likely that traffic growth will be fastest outside existing urban areas, but that the potential for growth is much greater in urban areas. Assuming that car use and ownership continue to rise, it seems likely that: (1) urban congestion will extend beyond peak periods; (2) rural traffic will increase dramatically, and congestion will increase on interurban and rural roads, as more people live in the countryside; (3) new business and shopping centres will emerge at motorway junctions, and bypasses will be demanded due to congestion at these centres; (4) work distances will increase; (5) leisure traffic will increase; and (6) there will be extensive expansion of peri-urban areas with low-density housing interspersed with some rural land uses. The process of continued wide-spread high traffic growth will be slowed down, only if urban social policy is altered to encourage perceived benefits of living in towns.
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