Incorporating Cycling in Ottawa-Gatineau Travel Forecasting Model

Abstract

The paper presents an approach that goes beyond the traditional travel modeling paradigm by incorporating cycling as an explicitly defined mode alternative in the recently updated model for Ottawa-Gatineau. Current models tend to operate with greatly simplified cycling Level-of-Service (LOS) measures (most often an arbitrary specified average speed across the entire network) and do not model details associated with actual cycling routes and facilities. Also, current models largely ignore the cross-modal impacts which cyclists and motorised traffic place upon each other. As a result, policies that affect cycling conditions, for example cycling lanes and/or related traffic regulations cannot be evaluated with the current models. The proposed innovative cycling simulation model for Ottawa-Gatineau, is based on a cycling route choice model that is designed to be sensitive to a wide range of LOS measures including time, speed, level-of-stress, turn conditions at intersections, area type effects etc. This route choice model serves as basis for a regional cycling assignment model. This regional assignment model is integrated into the overall regional travel model that predicts the share of cycling trips versus other auto, transit, and other non-motorized modes for different types of trips and population segments. (A) For the covering abstract of this conference see ITRD record number 201310RT334E.

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