Exploring the causes of forced migration: a pooled time-series analysis 1971-1990.

Abstract

This paper (1) develops a theoretical model of refugee migration that builds on existing research in early warning and preventive diplomacy and (2) empirically tests this model in order to assess the role played by generalized structural factors in the formation of forced data come from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the U.S. Committee for Refugees (USCR). The results suggest that first measures of institutional human rights violations have weaker predictive power than do measures of generalized violence. Second civil wars with foreign military interventions are more important in producing large refugee populations and prolonged migrations than are civil wars without outside influence. Third ethnic rebellion is important as a cause of small refugee migrations but cannot significantly predict mass exodus. Finally economic and intervening variables have little impact on predicting refugee migration. (EXCERPT)

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